What’s Going On Over There?

As most of you are aware, there is a big shake-up taking place within the Muslim world right now, with armed insurrections having taken place or currently happening in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Syria, and Bahrain. Smaller protests which have not yet exploded into major violence have happened in almost every Middle-Eastern Islamic nation including Lebanon, the U.A.E., Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Many are wondering just what is happening “over there?”

Unfortunately, those in power in Washington, Moscow and other more “civilized” power-centers of the world are struggling to understand what is happening too! That is because they are looking at these events, as they do all world events, with a non-Biblical, non-Christian, irreligious world view. They do not believe in God, the devil, or demonic forces, nor do they understand the power of religious fervor and the certainly do not understand the true nature of Islam. They do not acknowledge the divided factions within these various Islamic countries or the driving spiritual forces behind them. They prefer to look at conflicts through the outdated cold-war lens of capitalism vs. communism. They size up Islamic regimes as either being pro-U.S. or pro-Russia, as though these were the two sides of the larger battle. Some, like George W. Bush did, see the conflict as good vs. evil, a stance for which he was roundly mocked. While his understanding was a step closer to the truth, he miss-identified “good” as freedom and democracy, and “evil” as brutal totalitarian dictatorships. Granted, brutal dictatorships are in fact evil, but freedom is not necessarily good.


Think back to the founding of the United States. Our fathers came here looking for freedom, but when it was achieved it was a societal freedom framed by a constitutional rule of law and hemmed with the individually-imposed boundaries that come from a citizenry devoted to Jesus Christ and Biblical morality. Without true Biblical morality guiding the people, freedom is only a freeway to anarchy. Picture a soda pop bottle, capped and full, but shaken until the pressure inside is about to burst. When the bottle opener comes to provide “freedom,” what happens next is neither beneficial to the contents of the bottle nor anyone standing nearby!


Oppressed peoples suffering from lifetimes of suppressed freedoms are the pressurized soda pop in my metaphor and whether it be the pressurized people themselves or the U.S., the U.N., or N.A.T.O., acting as a bottle opener, once it starts to spew, it becomes apparent that there it can not be bottled up again. In reality, freedom is the unrestricted ability to follow the underlying morality. In his case, it is not based on the teachings of Christ, but of Mohammed, bringing a freedom to kill, steal and destroy one’s enemies, a freedom to take vengeance, a freedom to lie and deceive in order to gain an advantage - a freedom that will lead to an evil greater that the one it replaced.


Earlier this year, before the fall of Mubarak, I wrote an article called “The Jasmine Revolt.” (http://davidacrisp.blogspot.com / Jan. 26th) In it, I described what I thought would happen next based on recent past history. What I saw happening then in Tunisia reminded me of the events just prior to the fall of the Soviet Union and the break-up of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe. I predicted that the so-called “Jasmine revolt” would spread, just like the Romanian overthrow of communism in 1989 led to the fall of the Berlin wall, and engulf places like Egypt and Libya, and so it has. Using that same model, one can also understand what is happening now and predict what will happen next. Let’s look back just 20 years. When the iron boot of Soviet domination was taken from the neck of Yugoslavia, that country devolved into tribal, racial, and religious warfare. Yugoslavia became Bosnia, Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia. Centuries old factional hatreds suppressed by the Russian Bear remained smoldering just under the surface for decades. Then, when the fresh wind of “freedom” blew through and the yoke of Soviet domination was taken away, those embers sprang into a raging fire of killing, maiming, raping and savagery that shocked the world. The only thing that stopped it was military intervention by the UN, led primarily by the U .S. That same lesson was re-taught to us in the 2nd Persian Gulf War with Iraq and in Afghanistan. Getting rid of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein was the easy part, trying to keep the unleashed factions from killing each other after the rulers were gone was the hard part and only somewhat successfully accomplished because of our ten-year long commitment to nation building there -a strategy which the U.S. is no longer willing or able to employ elsewhere. What happened in Bosnia in the 90’s and Iraq in this decade is about to happen again, this time on a much, much larger scale across the Middle East. The removal of Ben-Ali from Tunisia, Mubarak from Egypt, and Kaddafi from Libya, may bring freedom, but it will not be a “good” freedom - and this time the U.S. will not be able to stop the wild-fire of violence. Now multiply this scenario by several more nations across the region and you will begin to see the ominous dark clouds gathering there.

What everyone seems to be missing is that within these Middle Eastern nations are the same smoldering factional hatreds that erupted in Bosnia, and Iraq. The bottle cap is being pried off by NATO airstrikes and the mess is about to start. The factions are tribal, sectarian, racial, and religious. The only thing that temporarily unites them from time to time is hatred for the “the little Satan,” Israel, and “the great Satan,” the Untied States. But beneath all that is this: “You shall name him Ishmael, for he will be a wild-donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone, and everyone’s hand against him, and he will live in hostility and hatred towards all his brothers.” (Gen. 16:11b-12) These are the words of the Angel of the LORD to Hagar regarding her son Ishmael. Not a curse, but a revelation, a revealing of the future. That future is now present to us.


Within each of the Muslim nations now in turmoil are two major factions: the two major branches of Islam, Sunni and Shia. Within these are smaller sects, like the Allawite sect of Shia Islam adhered to by Syrian President Bashar Assad. Most Sunnis consider Shias to be heretics! The Allawites are sometimes thought by Sunnis to be further away from the true teaching of Mohammed than Christians and Jews! Within Syria, 74 % or the people are Sunni but the rulers are Allawite Shia, as well as about 15% of the population. Over the centuries these groups have fought and killed and slaughtered and oppressed each other. Then there is the racial division within Middle Eastern Islam: the Persians, led by Iran, and the Arabs, led by the Saudi Arabia, as well as many other various racial and tribal sub-groups which have been persecuted and subjugated by one another over the years. The hatred of these groups for one another is only outdistanced by their hatred of Christians and Jews. What will “freedom” give these groups? An opportunity to kill each other, and the rest of the world will not be unscathed. Fifty percent of all the world’s oil-reserves lie within these nations- and all that oil traverses through the Persian Gulf, the body of water that geographically separates these future combatants. What is shaping up is a battle royal between a host of people-groups falling mainly into two camps: Shia and Sunni, led respectively by Iran and Saudi Arabia. What is at stake is nothing less than control over the world’s oil reserves, and Islam itself.


Let’s look at some specific situations within some of these nations.


Just off shore, a few miles south of Kuwait, lies the tiny island nation of Bahrain. Bahrain is about ¼ the size of Rhode Island, 28 miles long and 10 miles wide .But this tiny country may play a big role in what happens next. It is as a nation of 80% Shia ruled by a Sunni king, who happens to be best friends with the rulers of Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is also the home to the U.S. navy’s 5th fleet and 30,000 American service personnel. While Bahrain is majority Shia ruled by a Sunni king, (a recipe for trouble both here, and in reverse, in Syria), Saudi Arabia is, by contrast, majority Sunni and ruled by Sunni King. In Saudi Arabia though, Sunnis are a majority only in the western regions. In the oil-rich east, across the gulf from Iran, Shia are the majority. In addition to these potentially troubling issues, Saudi King Abdullah is considered to be a “liberal” Sunni while most of his Sunni subjects are of the very conservative “Wahhabi” variety.


The Royal House of Saud, long a U.S. ally, (a relationship that makes them even more vulnerable to revolution right now), are very worried about the “Jasmine Revolution” sweeping across the Islamic world. When protests began in their back yard in Bahrain, King Abdullah saw what could happen to him. Last week he sent 2000 Arabian troops to Bahrain to bolster the monarchy there. This move has angered many; especially President Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs in Iran who are jumping up and down to see Sunni monarchs deposed and be replaced by “democracies” in Shia majority lands. Iran even claims Bahrain as its rightful territory. Again appealing to recent history, we can find similar rhetoric employed by Saddam before invading Kuwait, and Hitler before invading Austria. If Bahrain falls into rebel hands it will undoubtedly have a negative impact on U.S. ability to affect matters in the region. But with the U.S. fleet there and King Abdullah’s soldiers in place, I think the King of Bahrain is safe…. for now. I do not think Iran will invade Bahrain. Instead, Iran will continue to bide its time, letting the Jasmine Revolution do its bidding until the Iranian nuclear weapons programs have succeeded in building a bomb.


Meanwhile, Iran has an interesting choice to make in Syria. Just after the fall of Mubarak, Egypt gave permission for two Iranian warships to pass through the Suez Canal. (This gives us an interesting glimpse into the minds of those now in power in Egypt.) Those Iranian ships were headed to Syria loaded with men and supplies to build a deep water port. On March 1,st Iran announced plans to build and man a permanent naval base in Syria, about which one Iranian Admiral predicted, “This will be a development that cripples Israel.” Ahmadinejad has been a supporter of Assad, (both of them are Shia, even though Assad’s brand of Allawite Shia Islam, is thought by Ahmadinejad to be a cult), but now that Assad’s government may be in danger of falling, Ahmadinejad must make a decision. He could ride to Assad’s rescue and firm up that alliance or leave him hanging out to dry and support the rebels, giving Ahmadinejad greater influence with the Syrian majority and keeping his supply chain open to Hezbollah, the dominant political and military force in Lebanon to the south (another country split by factions.) My guess is that Ahmadinejad will wait to see how it is going to turn out in Syria, then throw Iranian support to the side that seems to have the upper hand, Assad or the rebels. Either way he will strengthen his position.


What will be the end result of these revolutions and how far off is it? Good questions. It appears to me that conditions are ripe for a mass chaos to engulf the Middle East and even perhaps a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or even a full-blown war between the two. A war, which if it comes, will find America on the wrong side- especially if Iran has the bomb. Not that we should support the Iranians! God forbid! But neither should we support Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud is destined for a fall. I believe the King of Saudi Arabia may be the harlot of Rev. 17 riding on the back of the Beast (Islam); the beast eventually hating and devouring her. (v.16)

The ten-horned beast-kingdom ridden by the harlot in Rev. 17 is none other than the ten-toed kingdom of Nebuchadnezzar’s dream in Daniel 2, the final earthly kingdom before Christ’s millennial reign; the kingdom ruled by the Anti-Christ. This kingdom is described as a “mixed” or “divided” kingdom of partly iron and partly clay. This passage was originally written in Aramaic. What is the Aramaic word for “mixed?”....the word is “arab!” Listen to how Daniel describes this final kingdom in Daniel 2:41-43: “Just as you saw that the feet and toes were partly of baked clay and partly of iron, so this will be a divided kingdom; yet it will have some of the strength of iron in it, even as you saw iron mixed with clay. As the toes were partly iron and partly clay, so this kingdom will be partly strong and partly brittle. And just as you saw the iron mixed with baked clay, so the people will be a mixture and will not remain united, any more than iron mixes with clay.” Sounds like a kingdom made from Shia and Sunni to me! When it comes to be, it will turn its eyes and its claws towards Jerusalem. (Ez. 38-39)

What is happening right now with the “Jasmine Revolution” is the fore-runner of this final kingdom. The dissolution of the current geo-political national structures in the Middle East is going to bring about a Shia vs. Sunni, Persian vs. Arabian, inter-Islamic war. This structural change will also nullify peace treaties that had been previously made with Israel, for example: the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, since the countries which made those treaties will have substantively changed. In the end, there will arise a leader to unite Islam (Shia and Sunni - iron and clay) and make a “covenant with many” to stop the fighting and enter into peace with Israel. This man is who both Ahmadinejad, and interestingly enough this week, Louis Farrakhan have announced is now on earth: the Mahdi, the 12th Imam. This man is the Anti-Christ. Where will he come from? Look to Turkey, the only Middle-Eastern Islamic nation which will not be caught up in the aforementioned inter-Islamic war. Turkey fits all the scriptural prophecies about his origins, and is being touted by western governments as the only “stable” Islamic nation that can bring peace in the region.

When ? I do not know, but I believe the events we are now witnessing in the Muslim world are ushering in the conditions for his arrival.

Source articles:

http://www.islamimehfil.com/topic/7294-saudi-arabia-fears-of-a-shiite-uprising/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/unitedarabemirates/7521219/Naval-battle-between-UAE-and-Saudi-Arabia-raises-fears-for-Gulf-security.html

http://rickrozoff.wordpress.com/2011/03/16/bahrain-u-s-backs-saudi-military-intervention-conflict-with-iran/

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=213175

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703784004576220690229874246.html

http://debka.com/article/20718/

http://debka.com/article/20803/

http://debka.com/article/20770/

http://debka.com/article/20782/

http://weaselzippers.us/2011/03/27/syria-muslim-brotherhood-playing-crucial-role-in-sunni-uprising-against-allawite-dominated-assad-regime/?amp